Report about the overall economy, issued by the National Bank of Kuwait, predicted the UAE economy to grow between 3% to 4% on an annual basis during 2015 and 2016, strongly supported by the non-oil sector growth, compared to the slowdown of the oil sector growth in the short and medium term, affected by down performance of global oil markets.
It is expected that oil GDP to fall during 2015, recovering slightly later in 2016. The non-oil sector is expected to witness strong growth at 5% to 6% on an annual basis during 2015 and 2016, respectively. This sector will continue to grow strongly supported by tourism, real estate and construction (especially in the transport and hospitality), especially with the approaching date of the International Exposition (Expo 2020).
The index of supermarket purchasing managers fell in March for the second month in a row, reaching 56.3 moderately influenced by all secondary components, with the exception of new export orders. Some of this decline is likely due to rise in the dollar (and DRAM, respectively), which is reflected in the economy of Dubai but still the outlook for external and local demand is good.
It is expected that the new changes will bring in the Companies Act a positive return on the corporate sector. One of the most important themes of change is reducing the minimum required percentage of shares to put up for the inclusion of companies in the financial securities market from 55% to 30% which is supposed to lead to increased activity of initial public offerings, as 55% was accounted as a barrier in front of the owners of companies, and prevent the inclusion of stocks. Also, the UAE is currently working on the completion of the draft concerning foreign investment, which will allow whereby for foreign investors the full ownership of companies in certain sectors.
Property in Dubai
The pace of high residential property prices fell in Dubai during 2014, especially in the second quarter of the year, having reached record prices at the end of 2013. The rise in transaction fee, the imposition of the ceiling on the mortgage, and increase the supply of housing units contributed to in the reduction of acceleration of Prices , prompting sellers to cut prices to match the expectations of buyers.
Authorities have repeatedly reiterated its intention to monitor the development of the real estate market, to avoid the incubator for a property bubble environment. And the initiative contributes to provide new housing units and tireless surveillance efforts by the authorities to avoid any significant rise in prices, such as that seen in 2013. Asteco for real estate services pointed to that it expected that 12 thousand apartments and two thousand Villa to be delivered during 2015, double the number of housing units that was delivered during 2014.
Inflation
General inflation rate maintained higher pace during 2014 and early 2015. The inflation rate reached in February, the second highest level since March 2009, up to 3.6% on an annual basis, after the acceleration of the cost of housing units, especially rents. The inflation rate reached 7.4% in the housing component on an annual basis during the month of February, where it continued to rise since the end of 2013 as a result of the recovery of the residential real estate sector. It is supposed that the new distributions of residential units lead to a simple decline in inflation in rents in the medium term, and easing inflationary pressures. It is also expected that the rise in the dollar and the decline in commodity prices will lead to ease inflationary pressures on overall inflation rate. It is expected that the average inflation will reach rate of 3% during 2015 and 3.5% in 2016.
Slight deficit
Assuming breakeven price of oil reaches to 70 $ for a barrel, it is expected that Emirates budget to register a slight deficit as a result of high levels of spending in front of the decline in oil revenues. It is expected that the budget will record a decline of 3% of GDP during 2014 surplus to a record deficit of about 1.3% through 2015. But with owning Emirates abundant financial reserves, perform large proportion of GDP at 200%, it is unlikely The UAE economy will witness a large deficit in the medium term.
It is expected that both Dubai and Abu Dhabi to maintain high levels of government spending, as it is expected that government spending rises in Dubai more before the start of the International Exhibition (Expo 2020), in line with the attainment date for a large part of its debt maturities during the same period.
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